Forecasting Potential Slope Failure in Open Pit Mines - Contingency Planning and Remediation

2006

Nick D. Rose, Oldrich Hungr

Forecasting potential slope failure in open pit mines is integral to maintaining safety and mine productivity. Laboratory testing of rain induced landslides in Japan 20 years ago led to an inverse-velocity approach for estimating slope failure time. This approach appears to have been largely overlooked in mining, but has been successfully applied in the prediction of three large slope failures ranging in size from 1 to 18 million cubic metres. These predictions were forecasted two weeks to three months in advance of failure. This presentation provides an overview in the development of inverse-velocity as a tool for failure prediction and presents four case examples in the successful application of this approach. A methodology is also presented that facilitates contingency planning and remediation based on slope movement rate predictions and selection of operational threshold movement rate criteria.

Keywords: inverse-velocity, failure prediction, remedial measures, threshold criteria, contingency planning